Thursday 18 May 2017
Publications
INVESTMENT INSIGHTS, OUR CONVICTIONS - MAY 2017
Find out the monthly market macroeconomic and product overviews :
EDITORIAL : STEP BY STEP
As you are no doubt aware, we only use 10% of our brain capacity. It could therefore be assumed that if we were to increase this percentage, even by a fraction, we could access an unprecedented level of consciousness, or even develop metapsychic talents. Telekinesis, telepathy, clairvoyance or even precognition, the possibilities are endless and the potential is huge. Unfortunately, this belief is both ancient and fl awed. It is based on the fact, itself correct, that we are unable to harness all of our mental capacity simultaneously. This limitation, known as « bottleneck » is the result of our cognitive architecture that only allows us to manage one central task at any one time.
As such, if it is possible to carry out two familiar activities simultaneously, it is particularly diffi cult for us to make two decisions at once. Financial markets are a metaphorical embodiment of our cerebral cortex. Their fi eld of action is huge, their connexions are abundant and their potential has no limits – and yet… Yet, they always seem unable to manage more than one major piece of information at once. They have to fragment the issues and deal with each stage gradually, focusing on the closest deadline.
In April, all eyes were on the French presidential election and on the rise of Mélenchon in the polls. And if last minute uncertainties were eased after the “favourable” result of the fi rst round, we are still in no position to delete our scenario of political risk in Europe.
The cold relations between the Eurozone and the United Kingdom, Italian banks, and German elections continue to generate risks that will have to be addressed one after the other. At the same time, the probability of our “domestic and external tension in the United States” scenario has become stronger as President Trump appears unable to harness support from within his own party. These two alternative scenarios would have negative implications for equity markets; however only the scenario focused on Europe would see a fall in interest rates. Finally, our central scenario based on “resilient global economic growth” is materialising, suggesting that the major upside on equity markets and the moderate drop in bond markets is likely to continue.
Cyrille Geneslay, asset allocation portfolio manager
- MACROECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT - INFLATION IS BACK, OR IS IT?
by Philippe Weber, Co-Head of Research & Strategy
- MULTI-ASSET INVESTING - THE CPR CROISSANCE RANGE... A 20-YEAR TRACK RECORD, ALREADY
By Jean-Thomas Heissat, Product Specialist
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GLOBAL EQUITY THEME - CPR INVEST - GLOBAL DISRUPTIVE OPPORTUNITIES - INDUSTRY 4.0: THE NEW INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION IS UNDER WAY
OVERVIEW OF OUR MARKET SCENARIOS AT END APRIL 2017 :
- CENTRAL SCENARIO: GLOBAL ECONOMIC GROWTH REMAINS VIGOROUS
- ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO 1: DOMESTIC AND/OR EXTERNAL TENSION CAUSED BY TRUMP
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ALTERNAIVE SCENARIO 2 : POLITICAL RISKS IN EUROPE
Our next publication will be in June 2017. Our experts are available for any further information.
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