Friday 16 June 2017
Publications
INVESTMENT INSIGHTS, OUR CONVICTIONS - JUNE 2017
Find out the monthly market macroeconomic and product overviews :
EDITORIAL : WHEN THE UNPREDICTABLE BECOMES REALITY...
We spend most of our lives in a deterministic frame of mind, believing that due to causality, we will find happiness and serenity through - sometimes excessive - control. We plan, organise, and program our lives in order to reduce the uncertainty or the unknown, to a small, visible and manageable size. We consider twists and setbacks as failures that are more or less acceptable. However despite all our efforts, impossible situations do occur following chains of events, each more unlikely than the next.
Who would have thought that Leslie Lynch King Jr. would become the 38th President of the United States? This required the stepping down of Spiro Agnew (corruption), at the time Vice-President, then the ousting of Richard Nixon due to a nasty tape recording story, for Mr King to become President under the name of Gerald Ford and mark the history of the United States as the first and only President not to have been elected by the American people. But although this story – which sounds as vacuous as the plot in a bad TV series – turned out to be a man’s first steps towards an exceptional destiny, the end was even more absurd. Failing to get re-elected for a “second’ mandate, Ford will leave behind him the image of a blundering and incapable leader, unable to chew gum and walk at the same time – in some ways, an old-fashioned and outdated version of an incoherent twitter writer with limited vocabulary…
In our professional capacity, and driven by our desire to control the world that surrounds us, we try – through our market scenarios – to anticipate the most likely risks. Political risk in the Eurozone, having already receded in late April, disappeared in May, overshadowed by ever-growing Trump-related risk. Our scenario of “domestic tensions weakening Donald Trump’s position” is strengthening due to impeachment risks and the President’s chronic inability to muster enough support from within his own majority to push his projects through. Equity markets would suffer and bonds would play their role as a “safe haven” asset class. At the same time, our central scenario based on “rigorous global economic growth” remains valid, amid rich market valuations. This scenario points to the continued rise of global equities and the normalisation of bond markets.
Cyrille Geneslay, asset allocation portfolio manager
- MACROECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT - ARE EMERGING COUNTRIES STILL A GOOD IDEA?
By Laetitia Baldeschi, Co-Head of Research & Strategy
- MULTI-ASSET INVESTING - ENJOY THE SALES ON HEDGING STRATEGIES BEFORE THE SUMMER!
By Vincent Bonnamy, Portfolio Manager Multi-asset and Volatility
GLOBAL EQUITY THEME - CPR INVEST - GLOBAL DISRUPTIVE OPPORTUNITIES - EARTH - RESOURCE MANAGEMENT: NATURALLY AND INEVITABLY DISRUPTIVE
OVERVIEW OF OUR MARKET SCENARIOS AT END MAY 2017 :
- CENTRAL SCENARIO: GLOBAL ECONOMIC GROWTH REMAINS VIGOROUS
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ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO 1: TRUMP WEAKENED BY DOMESTIC TENSIONS
Our next publication will be in July 2017. Our experts are available for any further information.
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